At the end of the latest trading session, the price of Robusta coffee in London delivered in May 2023 increased by 35 USD/ton at 2,104 USD/ton, delivered in July 2023 increased by 34 USD/ton at 2,093 USD/ton.
Meanwhile on the New York Stock Exchange, the price of Arabica coffee delivered in May 2023 increased by 7.45 cents/lb, at 180.05 cents/lb, delivered in July 2023 increased by 7 cents/lb, at 178.75 cents/lb.
Coffee prices on 2 floors suddenly increased sharply. According to experts, the cause after the incident of SVB has reduced the probability of the Fed's interest rate hike at the next meeting. Many people even think that the Fed will cut interest rates later this year.
Reuters cited sources from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), the country's green coffee exports in February 2023 only reached 2.1 million bags, down 35.8% over the same period last year. last year and was the lowest February level since 2018.
Currently, the price difference between Arabica and Robusta coffee in the context of economic recession fears, makes people tend to switch from consuming Arabica to Robusta to minimize costs.
This means that demand will probably weaken but not focus on Robusta. According to the forecast of the Commodity Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), Vietnam will continue to be the world's largest coffee producer and exporter in the period of 2023-2033.
Besides, the supply from other major exporting countries such as Brazil and Indonesia is showing signs of shrinking, giving Vietnam the opportunity to expand its export market share.
According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the country's Robusta coffee production in 2023 will likely drop by nearly 9% compared to last year, and Indonesia is predicted by Volcafe to drop to the lowest level in nearly a decade. century.
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