In the world market, the price of coffee continues to fall. Accordingly, the price of online robusta coffee in London delivered in March 2023 was recorded at USD 2,037/ton after decreasing by 1.26% (equivalent to USD 26).
The price of arabica coffee delivered in March 2023 in New York reached 173.65 US cents/lb, down 1.11% (equivalent to 1.95 US cents) at the time of the survey at 6:50 am (Vietnam time).
According to a Reuters survey of 10 traders and analysts, arabica coffee prices are forecast to see an annual decline of 12% in 2023, while the big crop at top producer Brazil is expected to lead to a global coffee surplus in the 2023-2024 crop year.
Prices are projected to end 2023 at an average of $1.48/pound (equivalent to EUR 1.38/pound), 15% off Friday's closing price and low 12% more than at the end of 2022.
Similarly, robusta coffee prices are expected to end 2023 at $1,900/ton (equivalent to EUR 1,770/ton), down 6% from Friday's closing price but 6% higher than the end level. year 2022.
Survey participants said that Brazil's 2023-2024 production size will play a major role in determining prices. There is some uncertainty as to whether the originally planned bountiful harvest will actually happen.
Brazil's 2023-2024 coffee crop is forecast to reach 67.1 million 60kg bags, up from an average estimate of 61.5 million bags for the 2022-2023 crop.
This is lower than the 71 million bags in a Reuters survey in July 2022, due to the fact that the crop did not grow as well as expected, possibly because the trees were not strong enough after a dry winter in Vietnam. Brazil.
The world's leading robusta coffee producer Vietnam is forecast to produce 31 million bags in the 2023-2024 season, up from 30 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop.
According to the survey's median forecast, bumper crops in Brazil and Vietnam will result in a global surplus of 3.35 million bags in MY 2023-2024 compared to a deficit of 4.15 million bags in FY2024. service 2022 - 2023.
Survey respondents also cited the possibility of constrained demand - due to high retail prices and the global economic downturn - as a factor in the bearish outlook, according to ESM Magazine.
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