Update Coffee Market Price Today on July 4th, 2023

 UPDATE COFFEE MARKET PRICE TODAY 
on June 29th, 2023 

At the end of the first session of the week, which is also the first session of the month, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe - London reversed and recovered. The September spot term increased by $47, to $2,538/ton and the November delivery term increased by $46, to $2,437/ton, significant increases. Trading volume is above average.

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US floor - New York has the same upward trend. September spot futures rose 1.50 cents to 160.50 cents/lb and December futures rose 1.60 cents to 159.70 cents/lb, very significant gains. Trading volume is above average.

The price of coffee on both exchanges rebounded on the first day of the month as funds and speculators returned to buy after cautiously liquidating in previous sessions with USDX dropping continuously, causing speculative capital flows to move away from exchanges. goods. Stocks reversed to rise again after a session in which the markets in general showed more positive signs, but it was inevitable that investors would take profits because the US market was closed for Independence Day holiday today, July 4. The weather report that coffee growing areas in southern Brazil are still dry, favorable for farmers to boost their harvest and new coffee crops will soon be sold to support the consumer market to increase supply and compensate. make up for the scarcity of goods from other main producers in the face of the prospect of increasing currency interest rates because of the fight against global inflation. No frost weather forecast for Brazil's main coffee growing regions on the July winter full moon.

Comments on the coffee market

In the first trading day of the third quarter and beginning of the second half of 2023, the price of coffee increased along with many commodities in the softs but grain products mainly decreased, the metal group mainly increased except for gold. decreased slightly but energy group dropped. Coffee prices rose to consolidate after a long fall on the arabica floor, sometimes touching a 5-month low and rushing down on the robusta floor to touch the full level since 1 month.

USDA estimates global coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year to increase by 2.5%. The USDA said higher production in Brazil and Vietnam this season will offset lower volumes in Indonesia. Furthermore, global exports could increase by nearly 5%, while growing demand is likely to lead to a tight stockpile. Colombia's coffee exports and domestic consumption increased throughout May 2023, while production declined. The National Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers says that domestic coffee consumption has increased by 8,000 bags (bag=60kg) in the past 12 months. Coffee exports also increased by 185,000 bags in May compared to the same month of 2022 – an increase of 22%, however, the volume of coffee production fell 21% year-on-year.

The World Coffee Research Center says the coffee industry needs an additional $425 million a year to innovate and respond to climate change. The organization's latest white paper states that over the next decade, more investment in R&D in coffee production - particularly in Africa and Latin America - is needed to ensure adequate supplies in the face of rising demand. climate change and growth.

Some economic and financial information can affect the price of coffee

Inflation in the world's largest coffee producing and exporting countries The annual inflation rate in Vietnam fell to 2% in June 2023 from 2.43% the previous month. This is the lowest level since February 2022, as traffic volume continued to decline (-11.98% vs -8.94% in May) and post and telecommunications (-0.58% vs. 51%).Indonesia's annual inflation rate fell to a 14-month low of 3.52% in June 2023 from 4% in May, below market expectations of 3.64%, with wages real growth in at least 16 months (2.85% vs 4.27% in May). The current operating interest rate is 5.75%. The annual inflation rate in Brazil fell to 3.94% in May 2023 from 4.18% the previous month, the lowest since October 2020 and according to market forecasts of 4.04 %. This is the third month in a row that Brazil has recorded an inflation rate below the central bank's target of 4.75%, supported by the current interest rate of 13.75%, one of the highest. the highest real yield in the world. The annual inflation rate in Colombia fell for the second consecutive month to 12.36% in May 2023 from 12.82% in April and below market estimates of 12.60%. This is the lowest inflation rate since October last year, with food prices rising the least in 18 months (15.66% versus 18.47% in April). The current operating interest rate is 13.25% - Vietnam's GDP in the first 6 months of 2023 did not meet expectations. The reason is that the economy has to face too many difficulties and challenges from outside as well as from within the economy. From the outside, the world context continues to be complicated and unpredictable, and the strategic competition for big countries is more intense, leading to the participation of many countries and regions, causing high growth in some import markets. The large export volume leads to tighter consumer demand, which has affected the export opportunities and market exploitation of domestic enterprises. Along with that, tight monetary policy has a strong impact on businesses and economic activities. investment and global consumption. Risks of banking system, public debt, corporate debt... increase; especially the Chinese economy, the world's second largest economy, still recovers slowly and has many uncertainties.

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